Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.100142 2.227126 2.360924 2.512943 2.681536 2.863548 3.075942
2025-09-21 1.885887 2.056767 2.245421 2.470982 2.735826 3.040139 3.421065
2025-09-28 1.742900 1.935315 2.154304 2.425276 2.756347 3.154329 3.679742
2025-10-05 1.678644 1.893362 2.144369 2.464722 2.870824 3.380561 4.090104
2025-10-12 1.627467 1.860140 2.138442 2.503379 2.981538 3.606157 4.520884
2025-10-19 1.581303 1.828153 2.129361 2.533923 3.080114 3.820612 4.959475
2025-10-26 1.523391 1.777162 2.091765 2.522587 3.118753 3.952738 5.291310
2025-11-02 1.471332 1.730132 2.055512 2.508923 3.150645 4.074998 5.620747
2025-11-09 1.417028 1.677214 2.008166 2.476117 3.151212 4.148570 5.878382
2025-11-16 1.366873 1.627218 1.961805 2.441114 3.144698 4.208697 6.118858
2025-11-23 1.334632 1.599059 1.942829 2.442596 3.190891 4.353622 6.528734
2025-11-30 1.311793 1.582122 1.937785 2.462875 3.265812 4.550651 7.067195
2025-12-07 1.270029 1.538926 1.895712 2.428311 3.255262 4.607547 7.350216
2025-12-14 1.229275 1.495711 1.851901 2.388888 3.234233 4.644344 7.599403
2025-12-21 1.189945 1.453071 1.807151 2.345609 3.203696 4.660828 7.807458
2025-12-28 1.178976 1.448734 1.815930 2.382961 3.306536 4.926576 8.627217
2026-01-04 1.168421 1.444394 1.824219 2.419545 3.410306 5.205914 9.556432
2026-01-11 1.156143 1.437082 1.827689 2.448438 3.502691 5.474481 10.542693
2026-01-18 1.133158 1.413882 1.806955 2.437716 3.524521 5.604002 11.191007
2026-01-25 1.110788 1.390857 1.785593 2.424791 3.541201 5.724404 11.852034
2026-02-01 1.084569 1.361607 1.753994 2.393747 3.522727 5.767885 12.290977
2026-02-08 1.059010 1.332659 1.721960 2.360608 3.498261 5.795804 12.691362
2026-02-15 1.043790 1.318199 1.711203 2.362011 3.538157 5.971121 13.663094